📚 Mastering Exchange Rates: IB & OCR Economics | IB OCR 经济：汇率 考点精讲
Exchange rates represent the cornerstone of international economics, linking national economies through the price of one currency in terms of another. For students navigating the IB and OCR Economics syllabi, understanding the mechanics, determinants, and consequences of exchange rate fluctuations is not just a topic to memorize — it is a framework for analyzing real-world phenomena such as trade imbalances, speculative attacks, and monetary policy transmission. This comprehensive guide dissects every essential dimension of exchange rates, from core definitions to advanced evaluation, equipping you with the analytical rigour required to excel in both structured questions and extended essays.
汇率是国际经济学的基础，它通过一种货币以另一种货币计价的价格，将各国经济紧密联系在一起。对于正在学习 IB 和 OCR 经济学课程的学生来说，理解汇率波动的机制、决定因素及其后果，不仅仅是一个需要记忆的课题，更是一个分析现实世界现象（如贸易失衡、投机冲击和货币政策传导）的框架。这份全面指南深入剖析了汇率的每一个重要维度，从核心定义到高级评估，为你提供在结构化问题和长篇论文中脱颖而出所需的严谨分析能力。
1. Defining Exchange Rates: Nominal, Real, and Effective | 汇率定义：名义汇率、实际汇率与有效汇率
The nominal exchange rate is simply the price of one currency expressed in units of another, quoted either directly (domestic currency per unit of foreign) or indirectly (foreign currency per unit of domestic). While the nominal rate tells you the immediate conversion value, it does not account for differences in purchasing power. The real exchange rate adjusts the nominal rate by the ratio of foreign to domestic price levels, providing a measure of international competitiveness. You should remember the formula as e = (E × P*) / P, where E is the nominal rate, P* is the foreign price level, and P is the domestic price level. A rise in the real exchange rate indicates a real appreciation, making domestic goods relatively more expensive.
名义汇率就是以一种货币单位表示的另一种货币的价格，既可以采用直接标价法（每单位外币对应的本币数量），也可以采用间接标价法（每单位本币对应的外币数量）。虽然名义汇率能告诉你即时的兑换价值，但它没有考虑购买力的差异。实际汇率则通过外国与国内价格水平的比率来调整名义汇率，从而衡量国际竞争力。你应该记住这个公式：e = (E × P*) / P，其中 E 为名义汇率，P* 为外国价格水平，P 为国内价格水平。实际汇率上升意味着实际升值，使得本国商品相对更贵。
The trade-weighted or effective exchange rate is an index that measures a currency’s value against a basket of trading partners, weighted by their share in the country’s trade. This metric is crucial for policymakers because a bilateral rate against the US dollar alone can be misleading when a country trades heavily with the Eurozone or China. For OCR papers, be prepared to explain why a depreciation against the dollar might coincide with an appreciation in the effective rate if other currencies weaken more sharply.
贸易加权汇率或有效汇率是一个指数，它衡量一种货币相对一篮子贸易伙伴货币的价值，并根据其在该国贸易中的份额进行加权。这一指标对政策制定者至关重要，因为当一个国家与欧元区或中国的贸易量很大时，仅看对美元的双边汇率可能会产生误导。在 OCR 考试中，要准备好解释为什么当其他货币更大幅度贬值时，对美元贬值的同时，有效汇率可能反而上升。
2. Exchange Rate Regimes: A Spectrum of Choice | 汇率制度：选择的范围
Countries do not all adopt the same approach to exchange rate determination. The spectrum ranges from a free float, where market forces of supply and demand solely determine the rate, to a fixed peg, where the central bank commits to maintaining a specific rate against an anchor currency or basket. Between these extremes lie managed floats, where authorities intervene to smooth volatility without targeting a precise level, and crawling pegs, where the rate is adjusted periodically in small amounts according to pre-announced criteria. The trilemma, or impossible trinity, dictates that a country cannot simultaneously maintain free capital mobility, a fixed exchange rate, and an independent monetary policy — it must sacrifice one.
并非所有国家都采用相同的汇率决定方式。这一范围从自由浮动（汇率完全由市场供求力量决定）到固定钉住（中央银行承诺将汇率维持在某一锚定货币或一篮子货币的特定水平）。在这两个极端之间，存在着有管理的浮动（当局进行干预以平抑波动，但不设定精确目标）和爬行钉住（根据预先公布的标准，定期小幅调整汇率）。三元悖论或不可能三角指出，一个国家不可能同时维持资本自由流动、固定汇率和独立的货币政策——它必须牺牲其中一个。
Understanding the incentives behind regime choice is essential. A fixed peg can import credibility from a low-inflation anchor country, anchoring inflation expectations. However, it requires massive foreign reserves to defend against speculative attacks and leaves the economy vulnerable to external shocks without the buffer of a flexible rate. A floating rate provides automatic adjustment to trade imbalances but can be excessively volatile, leading to uncertainty in international trade and investment. The IB syllabus particularly emphasizes evaluating these trade-offs using real-world case studies such as Argentina’s currency board or China’s managed float.
理解汇率制度选择背后的动机至关重要。固定钉住汇率制可以从低通胀的锚定国引入信誉，从而锚定通胀预期。然而，它需要巨额外汇储备来抵御投机性攻击，并且缺乏浮动汇率的缓冲作用，使经济在面对外部冲击时显得脆弱。浮动汇率则为贸易失衡提供了自动调整机制，但可能过度波动，导致国际贸易和投资的不确定性。IB 课程大纲特别强调利用阿根廷货币局制度或中国有管理的浮动等现实案例，来权衡这些利弊。
3. The Mechanics of a Floating Exchange Rate | 浮动汇率的机制
In a freely floating system, the exchange rate is determined by the intersection of the demand for and supply of a currency on the foreign exchange market. The demand for a currency derives primarily from exports of goods and services, inward foreign direct investment, and speculative inflows seeking higher returns — all of which require purchasing the domestic currency. The supply of a currency arises from imports, outward investment, and capital outflows, as domestic residents sell their currency to obtain foreign exchange. The equilibrium exchange rate balances these flows.
在自由浮动制度下，汇率由外汇市场上一种货币的需求与供给的交点决定。对一种货币的需求主要来源于商品和服务的出口、外商直接投资以及寻求更高回报的投机性资金流入——所有这些都需要购买本币。而货币的供给则来源于进口、对外投资和资本外流，因为本国居民需要卖出本币以换取外汇。均衡汇率就是使这些流动达到平衡的汇率。
A crucial distinction for IB students is between a movement along the demand or supply curve, caused by a change in the exchange rate itself, and a shift of the curves, caused by any other factor. A shift in demand, such as an increase in export competitiveness or a rise in domestic interest rates, appreciates the currency. A shift in supply, perhaps due to rising domestic incomes boosting imports or capital flight, depreciates the currency. You must be precise in diagrammatic analysis: label axes clearly as ‘Quantity of British Pounds’ and ‘Price in US Dollars per Pound’, show the initial equilibrium E₀, and demonstrate the new equilibrium E₁ after a shift, tracing the causal mechanism step by step.
对 IB 学生来说，一个关键的区别在于：由汇率本身变化引起的需求或供给曲线的移动，与由其他任何因素引起的曲线位移。需求的移动，例如出口竞争力增强或国内利率上升，会使货币升值。供给的移动，可能是由于国内收入增加推动进口增长或资本外逃，会使货币贬值。你在图表分析中必须精确：横轴清晰标注为“英镑数量”，纵轴标注为“每英镑兑美元价格”，标出初始均衡点 E₀，并在曲线移动后展示新的均衡点 E₁，逐步追溯因果机制。
4. Determinants of Exchange Rate Movements | 汇率变动的决定因素
Several interconnected factors drive exchange rate fluctuations, and strong answers require weaving these together rather than listing them in isolation. Relative inflation rates: if the UK has persistently higher inflation than the Eurozone, British goods lose competitiveness, reducing export demand for pounds while imports become more attractive, increasing pound supply. The currency depreciates — this is the foundation of purchasing power parity (PPP) in the long run. Relative interest rates: higher domestic real interest rates attract hot money inflows as investors seek higher yields, shifting the demand curve outward and causing appreciation, though the effect may be temporary if driven by inflation expectations rather than real returns.
多个相互关联的因素驱动着汇率波动，高分答案需要将这些因素融合在一起，而不是孤立地罗列。相对通胀率：如果英国的通胀持续高于欧元区，英国商品将失去竞争力，减少对英镑的出口需求，同时进口变得更具吸引力，增加英镑的供给。货币随之贬值——这是长期购买力平价（PPP）的基础。相对利率：较高的国内实际利率会吸引热钱流入，因为投资者寻求更高收益，从而使需求曲线外移并导致升值，尽管如果这种升值是由通胀预期而非实际回报驱动的，其影响可能是暂时的。
Speculation and market sentiment often dominate short-term movements. If traders anticipate a future depreciation due to political instability or widening current account deficits, they will sell the currency now, creating the very depreciation they expect — a self-fulfilling prophecy. Terms of trade improvements (export prices rising relative to import prices) increase export revenues, boosting currency demand. Additionally, government intervention, even in floating regimes, can influence rates through verbal intervention (jawboning) or direct buying and selling of reserves. For OCR essays, always distinguish between short-run portfolio flows and long-run trade-based fundamentals.
投机和市场情绪往往主导短期波动。如果交易员因政治不稳定或经常账户赤字扩大而预期未来贬值，他们现在就会卖出该货币，从而制造出他们预期的贬值——这是一个自我实现的预言。贸易条件的改善（出口价格相对于进口价格上涨）会增加出口收入，提升货币需求。此外，即使是在浮动汇率制度下，政府的干预也可以通过口头干预或直接买卖储备来影响汇率。在 OCR 论文中，要始终区分短期投资组合流动和基于贸易的长期基本面。
5. The Marshall-Lerner Condition and the J-Curve Effect | 马歇尔-勒纳条件与 J 曲线效应
A depreciation does not automatically improve the trade balance; its success hinges on price elasticities. The Marshall-Lerner condition states that for a depreciation to reduce a current account deficit, the sum of the price elasticities of demand for exports and imports must be greater than one in absolute terms. If export demand is highly elastic, a fall in the foreign-currency price of exports leads to a more than proportionate increase in quantity demanded, boosting export revenues. If import demand is elastic, the rise in domestic-currency import prices sharply contracts import volumes, reducing import expenditure.
货币贬值并不会自动改善贸易收支；其成功取决于价格弹性。马歇尔-勒纳条件指出，贬值要能减少经常账户赤字，出口和进口需求价格弹性的绝对值之和必须大于 1。如果出口需求弹性很高，以外币计价的出口价格下降会导致需求量以更大比例增加，从而提高出口收入。如果进口需求弹性很高，本币计价的进口价格上涨会大幅收缩进口量，从而减少进口支出。
Even if the Marshall-Lerner condition holds, the J-curve effect suggests that the trade balance may worsen in the short run before improving. Immediately after depreciation, import prices rise while export prices in foreign currency fall, but quantities adjust sluggishly due to existing contracts, production delays, and imperfect information. Consequently, import spending surges and export revenues lag, widening the deficit initially. Over time, as contracts are renegotiated and consumers switch to cheaper domestic substitutes, volumes adjust, and the trade balance improves — tracing a ‘J’ shape over time. This has profound policy implications: governments must exercise patience and may need parallel supply-side measures to facilitate the adjustment.
即使马歇尔-勒纳条件成立，J 曲线效应也表明，贸易收支在改善之前，短期内可能会先恶化。在贬值之后，进口价格立即上涨，而以外币计价的出口价格下跌，但由于现有合同、生产延迟和信息不对称，数量调整缓慢。因此，进口支出飙升，而出口收入滞后，最初会扩大赤字。随着时间的推移，随着合同的重新谈判和消费者转向更便宜的国内替代品，数量开始调整，贸易收支得到改善——在时间上勾勒出一个“J”形轨迹。这具有深远的政策含义：政府必须保持耐心，并可能需要同步推行供给侧措施来促进调整。
6. Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Objectives | 汇率与宏观经济目标
Exchange rate movements transmit powerful effects across all four major macroeconomic objectives. On economic growth, a depreciation can be expansionary by switching domestic and foreign expenditure towards domestically produced goods, boosting net exports (X – M) and aggregate demand. However, if an economy is near full capacity, this extra demand becomes inflationary rather than expansionary. On unemployment, a weaker currency can protect and create jobs in export and import-competing industries, though it does nothing for structurally unemployed workers whose skills do not match these sectors.
汇率波动对四大宏观经济目标产生着深远影响。在经济增长方面，贬值可以通过使国内外支出转向国内生产的商品来推动净出口（X – M）和总需求，从而产生扩张效应。然而，如果一个经济体已经接近充分产能，这种额外需求就会引发通胀，而不是扩张。在失业方面，弱势货币可以保护并在出口和进口竞争行业中创造就业机会，但对于技能不匹配的结构性失业工人则无能为力。
On inflation, the pass-through is direct and often swift. A depreciation raises the domestic-currency price of imported final goods, imported raw materials, and intermediate components, feeding directly into the consumer price index through cost-push channels. This can trigger a wage-price spiral if workers demand higher wages to compensate for lost purchasing power. On the balance of payments, the impact depends on elasticities as discussed, but a depreciation can also attract foreign capital if investors view the currency as now undervalued, improving the financial account even before the current account responds. High-quality IB answers acknowledge these multiple, sometimes conflicting, transmission channels.
在通胀方面，传导是直接且往往是迅速的。贬值会抬高进口最终产品、进口原材料和中间零部件的本币价格，通过成本推动渠道直接反映在消费者价格指数中。如果工人要求提高工资以补偿购买力的损失，就可能引发工资-价格螺旋。在国际收支方面，其影响如上所述取决于弹性，但贬值如果使投资者认为该货币被低估，也可以吸引外资，从而在经常账户作出反应之前就改善金融账户。高质量的 IB 答卷会认识到这些多样的、有时相互冲突的传导渠道。
7. Government Intervention in Foreign Exchange Markets | 政府对外汇市场的干预
Central banks intervene directly in forex markets by buying or selling their own currency against foreign reserves. To depreciate a currency, the central bank sells its own currency and buys foreign currency, increasing the supply of the domestic currency on the market. To appreciate it, the bank buys its own currency using foreign reserves, reducing supply. This conventional intervention is limited by the stock of reserves: persistent selling to defend an overvalued peg can deplete reserves to crisis levels, as dramatically illustrated by the UK’s exit from the ERM in 1992.
中央银行通过在外汇市场买入或卖出本币来对冲外汇储备，从而直接干预外汇市场。要使货币贬值，中央银行会卖出本币并买入外币，从而增加市场上本币的供给。要使货币升值，中央银行则会动用外汇储备买入本币，从而减少供给。这种常规干预受到储备存量的限制：持续抛售以捍卫高估的钉住汇率，可能使储备耗尽至危机水平，英国 1992 年退出欧洲汇率机制（ERM）就是一个生动的例证。
Indirect intervention operates through monetary policy. Raising interest rates attracts capital inflows and strengthens the currency, but at the cost of potentially contracting domestic demand and raising unemployment. This highlights the impossible trinity again: with free capital flows, a country cannot simultaneously target the exchange rate and domestic conditions. Sterilised intervention attempts to offset the monetary impact of forex operations by conducting open market operations domestically — for instance, selling government bonds to absorb the extra liquidity created by selling foreign reserves. The evidence on sterilisation’s effectiveness is mixed, particularly for emerging economies with less developed financial markets.
间接干预通过货币政策进行。提高利率会吸引资本流入并强化货币，但代价是可能收缩国内需求并推高失业率。这再次凸显了不可能三角：在资本自由流动的情况下，一个国家无法同时瞄准汇率和国内经济状况。冲销式干预试图通过在国内进行公开市场操作来抵消外汇操作的货币影响——例如，通过出售政府债券来吸收因出售外汇储备而产生的额外流动性。关于冲销有效性的证据好坏参半，尤其是对于金融市场欠发达的新兴经济体而言。
8. Evaluating Floating vs Fixed Exchange Rates | 浮动汇率与固定汇率的评估
A systematic evaluation demands a structured comparison. Fixed rates provide certainty for traders and investors, reducing transaction costs and hedging expenses, which stimulates international trade and long-term investment. They impose discipline on domestic policymakers, preventing competitive devaluations (‘beggar-thy-neighbour’) and forcing governments to control inflation to maintain competitiveness. However, they require the country to hold substantial foreign reserves, sacrifice monetary policy autonomy, and may force the economy to undergo painful internal devaluation — forcing down wages and prices to restore competitiveness — when the rate is overvalued, creating unemployment and social unrest.
系统性的评估需要结构化的比较。固定汇率为贸易商和投资者提供了确定性，降低了交易成本和对冲费用，从而刺激了国际贸易和长期投资。它对国内决策者施加了纪律约束，防止了竞争性贬值（“以邻为壑”政策），并迫使政府控制通胀以维持竞争力。然而，它们要求国家持有大量外汇储备，牺牲货币政策自主权，并且在汇率高估时，可能迫使经济经历痛苦的内部贬值——即压低工资和物价以恢复竞争力——从而造成失业和社会动荡。
Floating rates offer automatic adjustment to external shocks: a terms-of-trade deterioration leads to depreciation, restoring competitiveness without requiring wages to fall. They free monetary policy to target domestic objectives such as full employment or inflation control, and they do not require large reserves. The criticism is that floating rates are excessively volatile, driven by speculative bubbles and irrational herding, which creates uncertainty and mispricing. For small, open, and diversified economies like Australia or Canada, floating has generally been successful. For small, less diversified economies heavily dependent on a single commodity, the volatility can be devastating, making a peg to a currency basket potentially more attractive. Tie your evaluation to the specific context of the economy in question.
浮动汇率提供了对外部冲击的自动调整：贸易条件恶化导致货币贬值，无需工资下降就能恢复竞争力。它们释放了货币政策，使其能够瞄准国内目标，如充分就业或通胀控制，并且不需要大量储备。对此的批评是，浮动汇率由投机泡沫和非理性的羊群效应驱动，过度波动，从而造成了不确定性和错误定价。对于像澳大利亚或加拿大这样的小型、开放且多元化的经济体，浮动汇率总体上是成功的。但对于严重依赖单一商品的小型、不够多元化的经济体，这种波动可能是毁灭性的，这使得钉住一篮子货币制度可能更具吸引力。你的评估要结合所讨论经济体的具体背景。
9. Common IB & OCR Diagrammatic Pitfalls | IB 和 OCR 常见图表误区
Examiners consistently report that weak diagrams undermine otherwise strong analysis. The most frequent errors include: confusing which axis carries which variable — convention dictates that the price of the currency (exchange rate) sits on the vertical axis, and the quantity of the currency on the horizontal axis; failing to distinguish between a shift in demand and a movement along it; and forgetting to annotate the diagram with arrows and explanatory labels. A diagram without a clear written explanation explaining the initial position, the trigger, the shift, the new equilibrium, and the consequence is largely wasted.
考官们反复指出，拙劣的图表会破坏原本出色的分析。最常见的错误包括：混淆哪个变量放在哪个轴上——惯例是货币的价格（汇率）放在纵轴上，货币的数量放在横轴上；未能区分需求的位移和沿着需求曲线的移动；以及忘记用箭头和说明性标签对图表进行标注。一个没有清晰文字解释的图表——说明初始位置、触发因素、位移、新均衡和后果——基本上是白费力气。
Another critical mistake is drawing the supply and demand curves as rigid straight lines when they are meant to represent elastic responses; the flatter the curves, the greater the quantity response, which is essential for illustrating concepts like the Marshall-Lerner condition. When demonstrating the J-curve, do not overcomplicate: use a simple two-axis graph with time on the horizontal axis and the current account balance on the vertical axis, showing an initial deficit, a dip, and then a climb towards surplus. Label the time horizon explicitly, as the J-curve is an inherently dynamic phenomenon, not a static equilibrium comparison.
另一个关键错误是将本该具有弹性的供给和需求曲线画成僵硬的直线；曲线越平坦，数量反应就越大，这对于说明马歇尔-勒纳条件等概念至关重要。在演示 J 曲线时，不要过于复杂：使用一个简单的双轴图，横轴为时间，纵轴为经常账户余额，显示初始赤字、进一步下探，然后向盈余攀升。明确标注时间范围，因为 J 曲线本质上是一种动态现象，而非静态的均衡比较。
10. Applying Theory to Real-World Contexts | 将理论应用于现实情境
IB Paper 2 and OCR data-response questions demand that you apply exchange rate theory to contemporaneous events with precision. Consider the Swiss franc: in 2015, the Swiss National Bank abruptly abandoned its euro peg, leading to a sharp appreciation of over 30% in a single day. Analyze this using the speculative attack model: markets had tested the peg for months, forcing the SNB to accumulate colossal euro reserves to defend it. When the defense became unsustainable, the peg broke, inflicting severe losses on Swiss exporters and triggering deflationary pressure, which the central bank countered with deeply negative interest rates. This case study perfectly blends regime analysis, speculation, and policy trade-offs.
IB 试卷二和 OCR 的图表分析题要求你精确地将汇率理论应用到当代事件中。以瑞士法郎为例：2015 年，瑞士国家银行突然放弃了与欧元的钉住汇率，导致瑞郎在一天内急剧升值超过 30%。用投机性攻击模型来分析：市场已经测试了该钉住汇率数月，迫使瑞士央行积累了巨额欧元储备来捍卫它。当这种捍卫变得不可持续时，钉住汇率崩溃，给瑞士出口商造成了严重损失，并引发了通缩压力，央行不得不以深度负利率应对。这个案例完美地融合了制度分析、投机和政策权衡。
Alternatively, examine Japan’s persistent yen depreciation in 2023-2024. With the Bank of Japan maintaining its yield curve control and ultra-low interest rates while the Federal Reserve aggressively tightened, the interest rate differential drove massive capital outflows from yen into dollars. This depreciation boosted the Nikkei and exporters like Toyota, but it also squeezed household purchasing power through higher food and energy import prices, generating political pressure for intervention. Such analysis shows understanding that exchange rates involve distributional conflicts — exporters benefit, importers and consumers lose — which is the essence of high-level evaluation.
或者，考察日本在 2023-2024 年持续的日元贬值。在日本央行维持收益率曲线控制和超低利率，而美联储则积极收紧政策的背景下，利差驱动了从日元流向美元的大规模资本外流。这种贬值提振了日经指数和丰田等出口商，但也通过食品和能源进口价格上涨挤压了家庭购买力，产生了干预的政治压力。这样的分析表明你理解汇率涉及分配冲突——出口商受益，进口商和消费者受损——这正是高水平评估的精髓。
11. Synthesis and Examination Strategy | 综合与备考策略
When tackling an essay on exchange rates, structure your argument around a clear line of reasoning. Begin by defining your terms precisely, then outline the regime context — is the country floating or fixed? — because all subsequent analysis depends on it. Develop your argument by examining causes (why does the rate move?), consequences (what are the impacts on the four macroeconomic objectives?), and policy responses (what can the government or central bank do, and at what cost?). Always integrate evaluative comments: the effectiveness of any depreciation depends on the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-curve; the sustainability of any regime depends on reserve adequacy and credibility; the net welfare effect depends on whether the country is a net importer or exporter, and the composition of its trade.
在应对关于汇率的论文时，要围绕一条清晰的推理线索来组织结构。首先精确定义你的术语，然后概述制度背景——该国是浮动汇率还是固定汇率？——因为所有后续分析都取决于此。通过考察原因（汇率为何变动？）、后果（对四大宏观经济目标有何影响？）和政策应对（政府或央行能做什么，代价是什么？）来展开你的论证。始终融入评估性评论：任何贬值的有效性取决于马歇尔-勒纳条件和 J 曲线；任何制度的可持续性取决于储备充足度和信誉；净福利效应取决于该国是净进口国还是净出口国，以及其贸易构成。
Avoid simplistic assertions like ‘depreciation is good for the economy’ or ‘fixed rates are always better’. The mark scheme rewards nuanced judgement that weighs short-term gains against long-term costs, considers the specific structural characteristics of the economy, and acknowledges that the same exchange rate movement can be simultaneously beneficial and damaging depending on whose perspective you adopt. Use the Marshall-Lerner condition as a critical evaluative tool: it provides a clear criterion for judging whether a depreciation will actually improve the current account. Where elasticities are low — typical in developing economies reliant on imported capital goods — depreciation may prove stagflationary, raising inflation without stimulating much extra output.
避免诸如“贬值对经济有利”或“固定汇率总是更好”之类的简单断言。评分方案奖励那些能够权衡短期收益与长期代价、考虑经济特定结构特征、并承认同一汇率波动根据所采取的角度不同，可能同时是有益和有害的细致判断。将马歇尔-勒纳条件作为关键的评估工具：它提供了一个明确的标准来判断贬值是否真的会改善经常账户。在弹性较低的情况下——这在依赖进口资本品的发展中经济体中很典型——贬值可能会被证明是滞胀性的，在无法刺激多大额外产出的同时推高了通胀。
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