📚 IB OCR Economics: A Guide to Conducting Experiments | IB OCR 经济：实验操作指南
Economic experiments bring abstract theories to life by allowing you to observe how individuals make decisions in controlled environments. Whether you are studying market equilibrium, game theory, or behavioural biases, well-designed experiments provide empirical evidence that can complement your written analysis. This guide walks you through the entire process of planning, executing, and interpreting economic experiments, tailored for IB and OCR economics students who want to strengthen their internal assessments or deepen their understanding of core concepts.
经济学实验通过让你在受控环境中观察个体如何做决策，将抽象的理论变得生动。无论你是在研究市场均衡、博弈论还是行为偏差，一个精心设计的实验都能提供实证证据，为你的书面分析增色。本文为IB和OCR经济学学生量身定制，将带你走完经济学实验的计划、执行与解读全过程，帮助你强化内部评估作业或加深对核心概念的理解。
1. The Role of Experiments in Economics | 实验在经济学中的作用
Experiments serve as a bridge between theoretical models and real-world behaviour. In IB and OCR syllabuses, understanding how rational choice, incentives, and market forces operate is fundamental; experiments let you test these forces directly, revealing patterns such as the emergence of equilibrium prices in a double auction or the prevalence of cooperation in prisoner’s dilemma games. They also highlight bounded rationality and social preferences that pure theory often overlooks, giving your analysis a critical edge.
实验是连接理论模型与现实行为的桥梁。在IB和OCR的课程大纲中，理解理性选择、激励和市场力量如何运作是根本；实验让你直接检验这些力量，揭示出双重拍卖中均衡价格如何形成，或囚徒困境博弈中合作行为的普遍程度等规律。它们还能凸显纯粹理论常常忽略的有限理性和社会偏好，为你的分析增添批判性锋芒。
2. Setting Clear Research Questions | 明确研究问题
Begin by framing a focused research question that states what you intend to investigate. For example, ‘Does the introduction of a per-unit tax reduce traded quantity in a double oral auction?’ or ‘How does the provision of information affect contributions in a public goods game?’ A clear question defines the variables you will manipulate (independent variables) and measure (dependent variables), and it must be answerable within the constraints of your classroom or online laboratory.
首先要构建一个聚焦的研究问题，明确你要探究什么。例如，“征收从量税是否会减少双开口头拍卖中的交易量？”或“信息的提供如何影响公共物品博弈中的贡献额？”清晰的问题界定出你将操纵的变量（自变量）和测量的变量（因变量），而且它必须在课堂或在线实验室的约束下是可以回答的。
3. Formulating Hypotheses | 提出假设
A hypothesis is a testable prediction grounded in economic theory. Suppose your research question examines the effect of a price floor. Your null hypothesis (H₀) might state that the price floor does not affect the average market price, while the alternative hypothesis (H₁) predicts that the average price will be higher than the competitive equilibrium. Use standard notation such as H₀: μ = P* and H₁: μ > P*. The clearer your hypotheses, the easier it will be to select an appropriate statistical test later.
假说是基于经济理论的可检验预测。假设你的研究问题考察价格下限的影响。你的原假设（H₀）可以声明价格下限不影响平均市场价格，而对立假设（H₁）则预测平均价格将高于竞争均衡。使用标准记号如 H₀: μ = P* 和 H₁: μ > P*。你的假说越清晰，之后选择合适的统计检验就越容易。
4. Experimental Design: Between-Subjects vs Within-Subjects | 实验设计：组间与组内
Decide whether participants will experience only one condition (between-subjects design) or all conditions (within-subjects design). In a between-subjects market experiment, one group trades without a tax and a different group trades with a tax. In a within-subjects design, the same group trades first without the tax and then with the tax, allowing you to control for individual differences. Each design has trade-offs: between-subjects designs avoid order effects but require larger samples; within-subjects designs are efficient but may suffer from learning or fatigue effects.
决定被试是只经历一种实验条件（组间设计），还是经历所有条件（组内设计）。在组间设计的市场实验中，一组人在无税条件下交易，另一组人在有税条件下交易。在组内设计中，同一组人先在没有税的情况下交易，然后在有税的情况下交易，从而控制个体差异。每种设计各有利弊：组间设计避免了顺序效应但需要更大的样本量；组内设计更高效，但可能受到学习效应或疲劳效应的影响。
5. Recruiting Participants and Random Assignment | 招募被试与随机分配
For classroom experiments, your peers are the most accessible subject pool. Ensure participation is voluntary and that you obtain consent. Random assignment to treatment groups is essential for establishing causal relationships: each participant should have an equal chance of being placed in any group. You can use simple tools like random number generators or shuffled ID cards. Document your recruitment and assignment procedures thoroughly, as this strengthens the internal validity of your experiment.
在课堂实验中，你的同学是最容易获得的被试库。确保参与是自愿的，并获得知情同意。随机分配到各处理组对于确立因果关系至关重要：每一位被试都应有同等机会被分配到任何一组。你可以使用随机数生成器或洗乱的号码卡等简单工具。详尽记录你的招募和分配流程，这将增强实验的内部效度。
6. Developing Instructions and Materials | 编写指导语与材料
Clear, neutral instructions are vital. Avoid leading language that could bias behaviour. If you are running a market experiment, provide a table showing each trader’s redemption values or costs, and explain the trading rules step by step. Use screenshots, handouts, or slides to standardise the delivery. Pilot your materials on a small group first to identify any ambiguous phrases. Record sheets should be designed for easy data entry; simple grids with columns for round number, price, and quantity work well.
清晰、中性的指导语至关重要。避免可能诱导行为的语言。如果你在开展一个市场实验，请提供一个列出每位交易者赎回价值或成本的表格，并逐步解释交易规则。使用截图、讲义或幻灯片来标准化呈现方式。先在一个小群体中试运行你的材料，以发现任何有歧义的表达。记录表格应设计得便于数据录入；简单的包含轮次、价格和数量列的表格效果很好。
7. Conducting the Experiment: Step-by-Step | 进行实验：逐步指南
Begin with a brief overview, then read the instructions aloud while participants follow along. Conduct one or two practice rounds to ensure everyone understands the mechanics. During the actual rounds, maintain a quiet environment and avoid giving hints. If using computer software such as oTree or classEx, monitor the session for technical glitches. Appoint an assistant to record observations, such as unusual bidding patterns or participant questions, as qualitative context can enrich your later interpretation.
先作简要概述，然后大声朗读指导语，让被试跟着看。进行一两轮练习，确保每个人都明白了规则。在正式轮次中，保持安静的环境，避免给出提示。如果使用oTree或classEx等计算机软件，要监控会话以防止技术故障。指定一名助手记录观察结果，比如异常的出价模式或参与者的提问，这些定性背景信息可丰富你后续的解读。
8. Data Collection and Recording | 数据收集与记录
Decide in advance what data you need. For a supply‑and‑demand experiment, record every transaction price and quantity, as well as unsold units. Store data securely, preferably in a spreadsheet with labelled columns: Participant_ID, Treatment, Round, Price, Quantity, etc. Double-check entries immediately after the session to correct any errors. If you are conducting a survey‑based experiment (e.g. measuring risk preferences), ensure Likert scales are coded consistently (e.g. 1 = strongly disagree, 5 = strongly agree).
提前决定你需要哪些数据。对于供给需求实验，记录每一笔成交价格和成交量，以及未售出的单位。安全地存储数据，最好存入带标签列的电子表格中：被试编号、处理组、轮次、价格、数量等。在实验结束后立刻核对输入项以纠正错误。如果你正在开展基于问卷的实验（例如测量风险偏好），请确保李克特量表编码一致（例如1 = 非常不同意，5 = 非常同意）。
9. Analysing Experimental Data | 分析实验数据
Start with descriptive statistics: calculate the mean, median, and standard deviation of key variables for each treatment group. Use bar charts or line graphs to visualise trends over rounds. For hypothesis testing, select a suitable parametric test (e.g. independent‑samples t‑test) if your data meet normality assumptions; otherwise, use non‑parametric alternatives like the Mann‑Whitney U test. Report your test statistic, degrees of freedom, and p‑value clearly. A typical result could be stated as: ‘The average price in the tax treatment (M = 4.8, SD = 0.5) was significantly higher than in the no‑tax treatment (M = 4.0, SD = 0.6), t(38) = 4.12, p < 0.001.'
从描述性统计入手：计算每个处理组关键变量的均值、中位数和标准差。使用条形图或折线图将各轮次的趋势可视化。对于假设检验，若数据满足正态性假设，选择合适的参数检验（例如独立样本t检验）；否则，使用曼‑惠特尼U检验等非参数替代方法。清晰地报告你的检验统计量、自由度与p值。一个典型的结果可以表述为：“征税处理组的平均价格（M = 4.8, SD = 0.5）显著高于无税处理组（M = 4.0, SD = 0.6），t(38) = 4.12, p < 0.001。”
10. Interpreting Results and Drawing Conclusions | 解释结果与得出结论
Relate your statistical findings back to economic theory. If a tax increased prices but reduced quantity by less than predicted, discuss possible reasons such as inelastic demand or market noise. Acknowledge limitations: small sample sizes limit generalisability, while classroom settings may induce demand effects. Conclude by stating whether your hypotheses were supported and suggest one real‑world policy implication. For IB students, this reflection is essential for the evaluation criterion; for OCR students, it demonstrates critical thinking beyond textbook models.
将你的统计发现与经济理论关联起来。如果税收提高了价格，但数量减少的幅度小于预测值，讨论像需求缺乏弹性或市场噪音这样可能的原因。承认局限性：小样本限制了可推广性，而课堂环境可能引发需求效应。最后说明你的假说是否得到支持，并提出一个现实政策含义。对IB学生而言，这种反思是评估标准的关键；对OCR学生而言，它展现了超越教科书模型的批判性思维。
11. Ethical Considerations in Economic Experiments | 经济学实验中的伦理考量
Even simple classroom experiments require ethical care. Participants must give informed consent and know they can withdraw at any time without penalty. Avoid deception unless it is methodologically necessary and approved by a teacher; if used, you must debrief participants afterwards. Anonymise all data so individuals cannot be identified. If monetary incentives are involved, ensure they are fair and not coercive. Keep a record of your ethical procedures; this is often required in IB internal assessment appendices.
即使是简单的课堂实验也需要伦理上的注意。被试必须给出知情同意，并知道他们可以在任何时候退出而不受惩罚。避免使用欺骗手段，除非方法上必要且得到教师批准；如果使用，事后你必须向被试做解释说明。对所有数据做匿名化处理，使个人无法被识别。如果涉及金钱激励，确保它们是公平的且不具强制性的。保存好你的伦理流程记录；这在IB内部评估的附录中通常被要求提供。
12. Common Pitfalls and How to Avoid Them | 常见陷阱与避免方法
One frequent mistake is running an experiment without a pilot test, which can lead to confusing instructions or floor/ceiling effects. Another is failing to isolate the variable of interest; for instance, changing both the tax rate and the trading rules in the same session makes it impossible to attribute causation. Also, be wary of post‑hoc reasoning: do not treat every data pattern as meaningful unless it aligns with a pre‑registered hypothesis. Finally, keep your write‑up concise and jargon‑free, ensuring a reader unfamiliar with your experiment can follow the logic from question to conclusion.
一个常见错误是不进行试运行就直接开展实验，这可能导致指令混乱或出现地板/天花板效应。另一个错误是未能隔离感兴趣的变量；例如，在同一场次中既改变税率又改变交易规则，会导致无法归因因果。此外，要警惕事后推理：不要将每个数据模式都视为有意义，除非它与预先注册的假说一致。最后，保持你的书面报告简洁、无术语，确保一个不熟悉你实验的读者也能理解从问题到结论的逻辑。
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