Investment Appraisal: Methods and Ratios Explained | 投资评估：方法与指标解析

📚 Investment Appraisal: Methods and Ratios Explained | 投资评估：方法与指标解析

Investment appraisal is the process of evaluating whether a proposed capital project is worth funding. Businesses use it to compare the likely financial returns of different projects and to decide where to allocate scarce resources.

投资评估是企业评估拟议资本项目是否值得投入资金的过程。企业用它来比较不同项目可能带来的财务回报，并决定如何将有限的资源分配到最合适的地方。

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1. Introduction to Investment Appraisal | 投资评估导论

A capital investment is a long-term commitment of money, such as buying new machinery, building a factory, or launching a new product line. These projects require a large cash outflow today, while the expected benefits arrive over several future years.

资本投资是一种长期资金承诺，例如购买新机器、建造工厂或推出新产品线。这些项目当前需要大额现金流出，而预期收益则要在未来多个年度才能实现。

Investment appraisal methods help managers answer a simple but important question: will this project create enough value to justify the initial cost? The most common methods are the payback period, the accounting rate of return, the net present value, and the internal rate of return.

投资评估方法帮助管理者回答一个简单却关键的问题：这个项目能否创造足够的价值，以证明其初始成本是合理的？最常用的方法包括投资回收期、会计收益率、净现值和内部收益率。

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2. The Time Value of Money and Discounting | 货币时间价值与折现

Money received today is worth more than the same amount received in the future. A dollar today can be invested to earn interest, whereas a dollar received next year has lost some purchasing power because of inflation, and it also carries more uncertainty.

今天收到的钱比未来收到的同等金额更有价值。今天的一元钱可以投资赚取利息，而明年收到的一元钱则因通货膨胀而有所贬值，同时伴随更大的不确定性。

Discounting is the process of converting a future cash flow into its present value. The rate used to do this is usually the firm’s cost of capital, which reflects the required return expected by investors and lenders.

折现是将未来现金流转换为现值的过程。所使用的折现率通常是企业的资本成本，它反映了投资者和债权人要求的预期回报率。

Discount factor = 1 ÷ (1 + r)ⁿ

折现系数 = 1 ÷ (1 + r)ⁿ

In the formula, r is the discount rate and n is the number of years in the future. A higher discount rate or a later cash flow produces a smaller discount factor, so future cash flows are worth less in present-value terms.

公式中，r 是折现率，n 是未来的年数。折现率越高，或现金流发生的时间越晚，折现系数就越小，因此从现值角度看，未来的现金流价值就越低。

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3. Payback Period | 投资回收期

The payback period is the length of time it takes for a project’s cumulative net cash inflows to recover the initial investment. It is measured in years and months.

投资回收期是指项目累计净现金流入收回初始投资所需的时间，通常用年数或月数表示。

If annual cash inflows are equal every year, the payback period can be calculated using a simple formula:

如果每年的现金流入相等，则可以使用简单公式计算回收期：

Payback period = Initial investment ÷ Annual net cash inflow

投资回收期 = 初始投资 ÷ 每年净现金流入

If cash inflows are uneven, a cumulative cash flow table is used. The payback period is the point at which the cumulative cash flow changes from negative to positive. For example, if $70,000 is still needed after three years and the next year’s cash inflow is $80,000, the remaining fraction is 70,000 ÷ 80,000 = 0.875 years.

如果现金流入不均匀，则需要使用累计现金流量表。回收期就是累计现金流从负数变为正数的时点。例如，如果在某一年仍需收回 70,000 元，而下一年的现金流入为 80,000 元，则剩余部分为 70,000 ÷ 80,000 = 0.875 年。

The decision rule is simple: choose the project with the shorter payback period, provided it meets the company’s target payback period. This method is easy to understand and is especially useful for businesses that need to recover cash quickly.

决策规则很简单：在企业设定的目标回收期内，选择回收期最短的项目。这种方法易于理解，特别适用于需要快速回笼现金的企业。

However, the payback period ignores cash flows that occur after the payback date, and it does not consider the time value of money. A project with a short payback period is not necessarily the most profitable in the long run.

然而，投资回收期忽略了回收期之后产生的现金流，也没有考虑货币的时间价值。回收期短的项目并不一定在长期内最赚钱。

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4. Accounting Rate of Return | 会计收益率

The accounting rate of return measures the profitability of an investment by expressing average annual accounting profit as a percentage of the investment made.

会计收益率通过将年平均会计利润表示为所投入投资的百分比，来衡量一项投资的盈利能力。

ARR = (Average annual profit ÷ Average investment) × 100

会计收益率 = (年平均利润 ÷ 平均投资额) × 100

Average annual profit is calculated as total profit over the project’s life divided by the number of years. Profit is measured after deducting depreciation but before interest and tax in most A-Level calculations.

年平均利润等于项目生命周期内的总利润除以年数。在大多数 A-Level 计算中，利润是在扣除折旧之后、利息和税项之前进行计量的。

Average investment is usually found using:

平均投资额通常按如下方式计算：

Average investment = (Initial cost + Residual value) ÷ 2

平均投资额 = (初始成本 + 残值) ÷ 2

If the ARR is higher than the company’s target return, the project is acceptable. This method is popular because it uses profit figures that managers and shareholders already understand, and it allows a direct comparison with the return from alternative investments.

如果会计收益率高于企业的目标回报率，则项目可以接受。这一方法之所以常用，是因为它使用了管理者和股东已经熟悉的利润数据，并能够直接与替代投资的回报进行比较。

The main weakness of ARR is that it ignores the timing of cash flows and the time value of money. Two projects with the same average profit can have very different cash flow patterns, yet the ARR method treats them as equally desirable.

会计收益率的主要缺点在于它忽略了现金流的发生时间和货币的时间价值。两个平均利润相同的项目，其现金流模式可能完全不同，但 ARR 方法会将它们视为同等可取。

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5. Net Present Value | 净现值

Net present value is a discounted cash flow technique that measures the total financial value created by a project. All future cash inflows are discounted back to their present value and then compared with the initial investment.

净现值是一种折现现金流技术，用于衡量项目创造的总财务价值。所有未来现金流入都被折现回其现值，然后与初始投资进行比较。

NPV = (CF₁ ÷ (1+r)¹) + (CF₂ ÷ (1+r)²) + … + (CFₙ ÷ (1+r)ⁿ) − Initial investment

净现值 = (CF₁ ÷ (1+r)¹) + (CF₂ ÷ (1+r)²) + … + (CFₙ ÷ (1+r)ⁿ) − 初始投资

In this formula, CF₁, CF₂ and CFₙ are the net cash inflows in each year, and r is the discount rate. The decision rule is:

在这个公式中，CF₁、CF₂ 和 CFₙ 是各年度的净现金流入，r 是折现率。其决策规则是：

• If NPV is positive, the project should be accepted because it is expected to increase shareholder wealth.
• 如果 NPV 为正数，项目应该被接受，因为它有望增加股东财富。
• If NPV is negative, the project should be rejected because it would reduce shareholder wealth.
• 如果 NPV 为负数，项目应该被拒绝，因为它会减少股东财富。
• If the firm must choose between two projects, the one with the higher positive NPV should normally be chosen.
• 如果企业必须在两个项目之间选择，通常应选择净现值更高的正数项目。

NPV is considered the most theoretically sound method because it considers all cash flows, applies the time value of money, and uses the firm’s cost of capital as a hurdle rate. Its main difficulty is the need to estimate future cash flows and choose an appropriate discount rate accurately.

NPV 在理论上被认为是最可靠的方法，因为它考虑了所有现金流、应用了货币时间价值，并使用企业资本成本作为门槛回报率。其主要难点在于需要准确估计未来现金流并选择合适的折现率。

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6. Internal Rate of Return | 内部收益率

The internal rate of return is the discount rate at which the net present value of a project equals zero. In other words, it is the rate of return that a project is expected to generate on the money invested.

内部收益率是使项目净现值等于零的折现率。换句话说，它是项目预期在投入资金上产生的回报率。

NPV = 0 at IRR

内部收益率下的净现值 = 0

The decision rule is to accept a project if the IRR is greater than the cost of capital. This means that the project is expected to earn a higher return than the cost of financing it.

决策规则是：如果内部收益率高于资本成本，则应接受项目。这意味着项目预期获得的回报高于其融资成本。

IRR is popular because it communicates the result as a percentage, which is easy to compare with other investments. However, it is harder to calculate without a spreadsheet, and for projects with unconventional cash flows, it can give misleading results. Many businesses therefore use NPV as their primary method.

IRR 之所以受欢迎，是因为它以百分比形式呈现结果，便于与其他投资进行比较。然而，如果没有电子

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