📚 The Relationship between Unemployment and Inflation | 失业与通货膨胀的关系
Understanding the link between unemployment and inflation is central to macroeconomic policy. For decades, economists have debated whether a trade-off exists that allows governments to lower joblessness at the cost of higher price rises, or whether such a relationship breaks down in the long run. This article explores the origins of the Phillips curve, its adaptation by different schools of thought, and its relevance today for A‑Level Economics students.
理解失业与通货膨胀之间的关系是宏观经济政策的核心。数十年来，经济学家们一直在争论是否存在这样一种权衡：政府能否以更高的物价上涨为代价来降低失业率，以及这种关系在长期是否会崩溃。本文探讨菲利普斯曲线的起源、不同学派对其的修正，以及它对当今A‑Level经济学学生的现实意义。
1. Defining Unemployment and Inflation | 定义失业与通货膨胀
Unemployment occurs when people who are willing and able to work cannot find a job at the prevailing wage rate. It is typically measured by the claimant count or the Labour Force Survey, giving a percentage of the active labour force. Inflation, on the other hand, is the sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services, commonly measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Retail Price Index (RPI).
失业是指愿意并且有能力工作的人在现行工资水平下找不到工作。它通常通过申请失业救济人数或劳动力调查来衡量，得出占活跃劳动力的百分比。另一方面，通货膨胀是商品和服务总体价格水平的持续上涨，通常用消费者价格指数(CPI)或零售价格指数(RPI)来衡量。
Both phenomena carry significant costs: unemployment leads to lost output and social hardship, while high inflation erodes purchasing power and creates uncertainty. The macroeconomic objective of most governments is to achieve both low unemployment and stable prices, which sets the stage for examining the potential conflict between these two goals.
这两种现象都会带来巨大代价：失业导致产出损失和社会困境，而高通胀削弱购买力并制造不确定性。大多数政府的宏观经济目标是同时实现低失业和价格稳定，这为研究两者之间的潜在冲突提供了背景。
2. The Original Phillips Curve | 原始菲利普斯曲线
In 1958, A.W. Phillips published a study of UK data from 1861 to 1957, showing an inverse relationship between the rate of change of money wages and the unemployment rate. When unemployment was low, wages tended to rise rapidly; when unemployment was high, wages grew slowly or even fell. This empirical finding was later interpreted as a stable trade-off between wage inflation (and by extension price inflation) and unemployment.
1958年，A.W.菲利普斯发表了一项对英国1861年至1957年数据的研究，显示货币工资变化率与失业率之间存在反向关系。当失业率低时，工资倾向于快速上涨；当失业率高时，工资增长缓慢甚至下降。这一经验发现后来被解释为工资通胀（进而物价通胀）与失业之间存在的稳定取舍关系。
The curve was downward‑sloping, suggesting that policymakers could select any point along it – for example, lower unemployment by accepting higher inflation. This idea became highly influential in the 1960s, as governments believed they could permanently trade off inflation against unemployment using demand‑management policies.
该曲线向下倾斜，暗示政策制定者可以选择其上的任意一点——例如，通过接受较高通胀来降低失业。这一思想在20世纪60年代极具影响力，因为各国政府相信他们可以利用需求管理政策在通胀与失业之间进行永久性取舍。
3. The Trade-off Explained | 权衡关系解析
The logic behind the trade‑off is rooted in the behaviour of firms and workers. When aggregate demand rises, firms increase output and hire more workers, reducing unemployment. However, to attract labour in a tightening market, they must bid up wages. Higher wages push up production costs, and firms pass these on as higher prices, causing inflation. Thus, rapid demand growth brings both lower unemployment and higher inflation, while a slowdown does the opposite.
这种权衡背后的逻辑植根于企业和工人的行为。当总需求上升时，企业增加产出并雇用更多工人，降低失业。然而，为了在趋紧的劳动力市场吸引劳动力，它们必须抬高工资。更高的工资推高生产成本，企业将其转嫁为更高的价格，导致通胀。因此，需求快速增长带来更低的失业和更高的通胀，而经济放缓则相反。
This mechanism appeared to give governments a menu of choice: a little more inflation could buy a significantly lower unemployment rate. Keynesian economists of the time argued that the curve was relatively stable and could be exploited by active fiscal and monetary policies to fine‑tune the economy.
这一机制似乎为政府提供了一份选择菜单：稍高的通胀可以换来明显更低的失业率。当时的凯恩斯主义经济学家认为该曲线相对稳定，可以被积极的财政和货币政策用来微调经济。
4. Demand-side Policies and the Short-Run Curve | 需求侧政策与短期曲线
In the short run, expansionary policies – such as lower interest rates or higher government spending – shift aggregate demand to the right. This raises real GDP and reduces unemployment, but also increases the price level. The movement along a short‑run Phillips curve illustrates this inverse relationship: a drop in unemployment from u₁ to u₂ corresponds to a rise in the inflation rate from π₁ to π₂.
在短期，扩张性政策——如降低利率或增加政府支出——使总需求右移。这会提高实际GDP并降低失业，但也推高价格水平。沿短期菲利普斯曲线的移动展示了这种反向关系：失业率从u₁降至u₂，通胀率从π₁升至π₂。
However, the short‑run Phillips curve assumes that inflationary expectations remain constant. Once workers and firms begin to anticipate higher inflation, the trade‑off becomes more complicated, as we shall see. This was the critical insight that transformed macroeconomic thinking in the 1970s.
然而，短期菲利普斯曲线假设通胀预期保持不变。一旦工人和企业开始预期更高的通胀，这种取舍关系就会变得更为复杂，正如我们将看到的。这是20世纪70年代改变宏观经济思维的关键洞见。
5. The Role of Inflation Expectations | 通胀预期的作用
Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps independently challenged the stable Phillips curve in the late 1960s. They argued that what matters for wage bargaining is not nominal wages but real wages – wages adjusted for inflation. If workers expect higher inflation, they will demand higher nominal wage increases to protect their real earnings. Similarly, firms will be willing to pay higher wages because they expect to sell their products at higher prices.
米尔顿·弗里德曼和埃德蒙·费尔普斯在20世纪60年代末各自质疑了稳定的菲利普斯曲线。他们指出，工资谈判中重要的不是名义工资，而是实际工资——经过通胀调整的工资。如果工人预期更高的通胀，他们会要求更高的名义工资增长以保护实际收入。同样，企业愿意支付更高工资，因为它们预期以更高的价格出售产品。
As a result, the short‑run trade‑off between unemployment and inflation holds only when inflation is unanticipated or when expectations lag behind reality. Once inflation expectations fully adjust, the economy moves back to its natural rate of unemployment, regardless of the inflation rate. This idea introduced the concept of the expectations‑augmented Phillips curve.
因此，失业与通胀的短期取舍只有在通胀未被预期或预期滞后于现实时才成立。一旦通胀预期完全调整，无论通胀率是多少，经济都会回到自然失业率。这一思想引入了预期扩展的菲利普斯曲线的概念。
6. The Long-Run Phillips Curve (NAIRU) | 长期菲利普斯曲线（非加速通胀失业率）
The long‑run Phillips curve is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment, often termed the non‑accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). At this level of unemployment, inflation is stable – there is no tendency for it to accelerate or decelerate. Any attempt to push unemployment below the NAIRU by boosting aggregate demand leads only to ever‑rising inflation, not a permanent increase in employment.
长期菲利普斯曲线是在自然失业率处垂直的，自然失业率常被称为非加速通胀失业率（NAIRU）。在这一失业水平上，通胀是稳定的——没有加速或减速的趋势。任何试图通过刺激总需求将失业率压低至NAIRU以下的尝试，只会导致不断攀升的通胀，而不会带来就业的永久增加。
π = πₑ − a(u − uₙ) + v
In this simple equation, π is actual inflation, πₑ is expected inflation, u is the unemployment rate, uₙ is the natural rate, a is a positive coefficient, and v represents supply shocks. In the long run, π = πₑ, so u must equal uₙ.
在这个简单方程中，π是实际通胀，πₑ是预期通胀，u是失业率，uₙ是自然失业率，a是正系数，v代表供给冲击。在长期，π = πₑ，因此u必须等于uₙ。
7. Natural Rate of Unemployment | 自然失业率
The natural rate of unemployment is the rate that prevails when the labour market is in equilibrium, reflecting structural and frictional factors rather than deficient demand. It includes frictional unemployment, as workers move between jobs, and structural unemployment, caused by mismatches in skills or geography. The natural rate is not fixed; it can change due to labour market policies, demographics, technology, and global competition.
自然失业率是劳动力市场均衡时的失业率，反映的是结构性因素和摩擦性因素，而非需求不足。它包括工人转换工作时的摩擦性失业，以及技能或地区不匹配造成的结构性失业。自然失业率并非固定不变；它可以因劳动力市场政策、人口状况、技术和全球竞争而改变。
Policies that improve job‑matching efficiency, such as better training or reduced welfare disincentives, can lower the natural rate. In terms of the Phillips curve, a fall in the natural rate shifts the long‑run vertical curve to the left, allowing a country to enjoy lower unemployment without accelerating inflation.
改善岗位匹配效率的政策，例如更好的培训或减少福利抑制效应，可以降低自然失业率。就菲利普斯曲线而言，自然失业率的下降会使长期垂直曲线向左移动，使一国能够在通胀不加速的情况下享受更低的失业。
8. Supply Shocks and Stagflation | 供给冲击与滞胀
One major anomaly to the original Phillips curve appeared in the 1970s, when many economies experienced stagflation – simultaneously high inflation and high unemployment. This was primarily caused by adverse supply shocks, such as the oil price surges of 1973 and 1979, which raised production costs dramatically. In our equation, this is captured by a positive ‘v’, which shifts the short‑run Phillips curve upwards.
原始菲利普斯曲线的一个重大反常出现在20世纪70年代，当时许多经济体经历了滞胀——高通胀与高失业并存。这主要是由不利的供给冲击造成的，例如1973年和1979年的油价暴涨，使生产成本急剧上升。在我们的方程中，这体现为正的‘v’，它使短期菲利普斯曲线向上移动。
When a supply shock hits, inflation rises for any given unemployment rate. Policymakers face a painful dilemma: if they tighten demand to reduce inflation, unemployment rises further; if they try to boost employment, inflation soars even more. The experience of stagflation shattered the belief in a permanent, exploitable trade‑off and lent support to the monetarist view.
当供给冲击发生时，对于任何给定的失业率，通胀都会上升。政策制定者面临痛苦的两难抉择：如果他们紧缩需求以降低通胀，失业会进一步上升；如果他们试图刺激就业，通胀则更加飙升。滞胀的经历粉碎了人们对于存在可永久利用的取舍关系的信念，并支持了货币主义观点。
9. Shifts in the Phillips Curve | 菲利普斯曲线的移动
Rather than moving along a fixed curve, economies frequently experience shifts in the entire short‑run Phillips curve. Key factors causing such shifts include changes in inflation expectations, supply shocks, and alterations in the natural rate of unemployment. When households, firms, and workers expect higher inflation in the future, the curve shifts rightwards (or upwards), meaning that any given unemployment rate is now associated with higher inflation.
经济不单单沿着一条固定曲线移动，而是经常经历整条短期菲利普斯曲线的位移。导致这类位移的关键因素包括通胀预期的变化、供给冲击以及自然失业率的变动。当家庭、企业和工人预期未来通胀更高时，曲线向右（或向上）平移，意味着任何给定的失业率现在都伴随着更高的通胀。
Conversely, credible anti‑inflation policies can anchor expectations and shift the curve downwards. Labour market reforms that reduce the natural rate will shift both the short‑run and long‑run curves leftwards, improving the trade‑off. Thus, the position of the Phillips curve is heavily influenced by the credibility of monetary policy and structural economic conditions.
反过来，可信的反通胀政策可以锚定预期并使曲线下移。降低自然失业率的劳动力市场改革会使短期和长期曲线都向左移动，改善取舍关系。因此，菲利普斯曲线的位置在很大程度上受货币政策可信度与经济结构性状况的影响。
10. Policy Implications and Keynesian vs. Monetarist Views | 政策含义与凯恩斯主义vs货币主义观点
The Phillips curve debate reflects deeper divisions in macroeconomics. Keynesians originally saw a reliable short‑run trade‑off, justifying active demand management to keep unemployment low even at some inflationary cost. Monetarists, led by Friedman, insisted that the long‑run curve is vertical, so expansionary policies only lead to accelerating inflation once expectations catch up. Attempts to peg unemployment below the natural rate are thus ultimately futile and destabilising.
围绕菲利普斯曲线的争论反映了宏观经济学更深层的分歧。凯恩斯主义者最初看到的是可靠的短期取舍，这为积极的需求管理提供了理由，即便要以一定的通胀代价来维持低失业。以弗里德曼为首的货币主义者则坚持长期曲线是垂直的，因此扩张性政策一旦被预期赶上，只会导致通胀加速。试图将失业钉在自然率以下，最终是徒劳且破坏稳定的。
- Short‑run trade‑off: Can operate if expectations are low and policies are unexpected.
- Long‑run neutrality: No trade‑off; inflation is solely a monetary phenomenon in the long run.
- 短期取舍： 如果预期较低且政策未被预料到，可以发生作用。
- 长期中性： 不存在取舍；长期中通胀纯粹是一种货币现象。
11. Modern Relevance and Current Debates | 现代意义与当前争议
In recent decades, many advanced economies have experienced low and stable inflation coexisting with varying unemployment rates, weakening the empirical clarity of the Phillips curve. The ‘flattening’ of the curve suggests that the sensitivity of inflation to unemployment has declined, possibly due to globalisation, more anchored expectations, and changes in labour market bargaining power. Central bankers closely monitor measures of slack and inflation expectations, but the relationship is no longer viewed as a mechanical rule.
近几十年来，许多发达经济体经历了低而稳定的通胀与不断变化的失业率并存，削弱了菲利普斯曲线的实证清晰度。曲线的‘平坦化’表明通胀对失业的敏感度已经下降，这可能是因为全球化、预期更为锚定以及劳动力市场议价能力的变化。央行官员密切关注闲置产能和通胀预期指标，但这一关系已不再被视为机械定律。
Nonetheless, the Phillips curve framework remains a crucial part of policy analysis. It reminds policymakers that pushing the economy beyond its sustainable capacity risks igniting inflation, and that supply‑side reforms can deliver lasting improvements in both employment and price stability. Modern central banks use modified versions of the curve, incorporating forward‑looking expectations and global factors.
尽管如此，菲利普斯曲线框架仍是政策分析的重要组成部分。它提醒政策制定者，将经济推至可持续能力之上有引燃通胀的风险，而供给侧改革可以带来就业和价格稳定两方面的持久改善。现代央行使用该曲线的修正版本，纳入了前瞻性预期和全球因素。
| Period | Dominant View of Phillips Curve |
|---|---|
| 1960s | Stable, exploitable trade‑off (Keynesian) |
| 1970s | Breakdown due to stagflation; rise of monetarist critique |
| 1980s–1990s | Expectations‑augmented curve; focus on NAIRU |
| 2000s–present | Flattened curve; anchoring of expectations and supply‑side emphasis |
Table: Evolution of the Phillips curve interpretation over time.
表：菲利普斯曲线解读随时间演变。
12. Conclusion: A Complex Relationship | 结论：复杂的关系
The connection between unemployment and inflation is far from simple. In the short run, a negative correlation can appear, tempting governments to pursue expansion that lowers unemployment at some inflationary cost. However, in the long run, the economy tends to settle at its natural rate, with inflation determined mainly by the growth of money supply and the credibility of policy. Supply shocks, shifting expectations, and structural change constantly reshape the trade‑off.
失业与通胀之间的联系远非简单。在短期，可以出现负相关，诱使政府追求扩张从而以一定的通胀代价降低失业。然而在长期，经济往往会稳定在自然失业率，通胀主要由货币供给增长和政策可信度决定。供给冲击、变化不定的预期以及结构性变化不断重塑着这种取舍关系。
For students of Economics, the Phillips curve illustrates the dynamic interplay between theory and real‑world events, and why policy cannot rely on a fixed, mechanical trade‑off. A deep understanding of the expectations‑augmented model and the NAIRU is essential for evaluating contemporary macroeconomic choices.
对于经济学专业的学生来说，菲利普斯曲线阐明了理论与现实世界事件之间的动态相互作用，以及为什么政策不能依赖固定的、机械的取舍关系。深入理解预期扩展模型和NAIRU对于评估当代宏观经济选择至关重要。
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