Trade Creation and Trade Diversion: Analysis of Regional Integration | 贸易创造与贸易转移：区域一体化分析

📚 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion: Analysis of Regional Integration | 贸易创造与贸易转移：区域一体化分析

Regional integration agreements, such as free trade areas and customs unions, have become a defining feature of the global economy. When countries form such blocs, they reduce or eliminate tariffs among themselves while maintaining external trade barriers. The central economic question is whether these arrangements improve global welfare or simply redirect existing trade flows. This article explores the twin concepts of trade creation and trade diversion, which form the analytical foundation for evaluating regional trade agreements.

区域一体化协定，如自由贸易区和关税同盟，已成为全球经济的一个显著特征。当国家组成此类集团时，它们之间会降低或取消关税，同时保持对外部国家的贸易壁垒。核心经济问题在于，这些安排是改善了全球福利，还是仅仅重新引导了已有的贸易流向。本文探讨贸易创造与贸易转移这两个核心概念，它们构成了评估区域贸易协定的分析基础。

1. The Context: Preferential Trading Agreements | 背景：优惠贸易协定

Preferential trading agreements (PTAs) grant member countries reduced tariffs or tariff-free access to each other’s markets. The most common forms include free trade areas, where members remove internal tariffs but retain independent external tariffs, and customs unions, which add a common external tariff. The European Union, ASEAN, and USMCA are prominent examples. These agreements are inherently discriminatory because they treat member countries more favourably than non-members, even when non-members might be more efficient producers.

优惠贸易协定（PTAs）给予成员国之间降低关税或免税进入彼此市场的待遇。最常见的形式包括自由贸易区，即成员国之间取消内部关税但保留各自独立的对外关税，以及关税同盟，即再加上统一的对外关税。欧盟、东盟和USMCA（美墨加协定）都是典型例子。这些协定本质上具有歧视性，因为即使非成员国可能是更高效的生产者，它们也给予成员国比非成员国更优惠的待遇。

The economic evaluation of such agreements relies on Jacob Viner’s classic distinction between trade creation and trade diversion, first articulated in 1950. These concepts measure whether a PTA moves production towards more efficient producers (trade creation) or away from them (trade diversion).

对此类协定的经济评估依赖于雅各布·维纳（Jacob Viner）于1950年首次提出的贸易创造与贸易转移的经典区分。这些概念用于衡量区域贸易协定是使生产向更高效的生产者转移（贸易创造），还是使生产偏离了更高效的生产者（贸易转移）。

2. Trade Creation: The Beneficial Effect | 贸易创造：有益效应

Trade creation occurs when a regional integration agreement leads to the replacement of high-cost domestic production with lower-cost imports from a partner country. Before the agreement, a tariff protected the domestic industry, making local production cheaper than imported goods. After the tariff is removed, the partner country’s more efficient producers can now compete, and the domestic market shifts to importing the good.

贸易创造是指区域一体化协定导致本国高成本生产被来自伙伴国的低成本进口所取代的情况。在协定之前，关税保护了本国产业，使得本地生产比进口商品更便宜。关税取消后，伙伴国更高效的生产者得以参与竞争，国内市场转而进口该商品。

This shift generates a net welfare gain for the importing country and improves global resource allocation. The efficiency gain arises because production moves from a relatively inefficient domestic producer to a more efficient partner-country producer. Consumers benefit from lower prices, and the government loses tariff revenue, but the consumer surplus gain exceeds the sum of producer surplus loss and tariff revenue loss.

这种转变为进口国带来净福利收益，并改善了全球资源配置。效率收益源于生产从相对低效的本国生产者转移到更高效的伙伴国生产者。消费者从更低的价格中获益，政府损失了关税收入，但消费者剩余的增加超过了生产者剩余损失与关税收入损失之和。

Trade creation can be broken down into two effects: the production effect, where inefficient domestic firms contract or exit, and the consumption effect, where consumers increase their quantity demanded due to lower prices. Both effects contribute to a net increase in economic welfare.

贸易创造可以分解为两种效应：生产效应，即低效的本国企业收缩或退出；以及消费效应，即消费者因价格下降而增加需求量。这两种效应共同促成了经济福利的净增加。

3. Trade Diversion: The Harmful Effect | 贸易转移：有害效应

Trade diversion occurs when a regional integration agreement shifts imports from a more efficient non-member producer to a less efficient member producer. Suppose a country previously imported a good from China, the world’s lowest-cost producer, but faced a tariff that made Chinese goods costly. After joining a PTA with South Korea, the member country’s goods become tariff-free while Chinese goods remain subject to the tariff. If the tariff now makes Chinese goods more expensive than South Korean goods, the country switches its imports to South Korea, even though China could produce the good more cheaply.

贸易转移是指区域一体化协定使进口从更高效的非成员国生产者转向效率较低的成员国生产者的情况。假设一个国家此前从中国（世界最低成本生产者）进口某种商品，但面临关税使中国商品价格较高。在与韩国加入区域贸易协定后，韩国商品免除关税，而中国商品仍需缴纳关税。如果关税使中国商品比韩国商品更贵，该国便将进口转向韩国，尽管中国能以更低的成本生产该商品。

Trade diversion is welfare-reducing for the importing country and for the world as a whole. The importing country loses tariff revenue and pays a higher price for a given quantity of imports. In addition, global production becomes less efficient because resources are redirected away from the most efficient producer (China) towards a less efficient producer (Korea). The loss arises because the partner country’s cost advantage over the original domestic supply is smaller than the tariff revenue that is sacrificed.

贸易转移对进口国和整个世界而言都是福利恶化的。进口国损失了关税收入，并为既定数量的进口支付了更高的价格。此外，全球生产效率下降，因为资源被从最有效率的生产者（中国）重新配置到效率较低的生产者（韩国）。损失的产生是因为伙伴国相对于原有国内供应的成本优势小于被放弃的关税收入。

From a global perspective, trade diversion represents a movement away from comparative advantage. The pattern of trade becomes distorted, and the world’s productive resources are not used in their most efficient manner. This is why economists view regional integration with caution: it can fragment the global economy into discriminatory blocs.

从全球视角来看，贸易转移代表了对比较优势的偏离。贸易格局被扭曲，世界的生产资源未能以最有效的方式使用。这就是经济学家对区域一体化持谨慎态度的原因：它可能将全球经济分裂为具有歧视性的集团。

4. A Numerical Example | 数字示例

Consider a country that imports a product under three possible sources. Assume the world price from China is $100, from South Korea is $110, and domestic production costs $130. An initial tariff of 20% is imposed on all imports.

考虑一个国家进口某种产品，有三种可能的来源。假设来自中国的世界价格为100美元，来自韩国为110美元，国内生产成本为130美元。最初对所有进口征收20%的关税。

Before the PTA: Chinese goods cost $100 + $20 tariff = $120; Korean goods cost $110 + $22 tariff = $132; domestic goods cost $130. The country imports from China at $120.
加入协定前：中国商品价格为100美元 + 20美元关税 = 120美元；韩国商品为110美元 + 22美元关税 = 132美元；本国商品为130美元。该国以120美元从中国进口。

Now suppose the country forms a customs union with South Korea, eliminating tariffs on Korean goods but retaining the 20% tariff on all other countries.

现在假设该国与韩国组成关税同盟，取消对韩国商品的关税，但对所有其他国家保留20%的关税。

Scenario A – Trade Creation: Korean goods now cost $110; Chinese goods cost $120; domestic goods cost $130. The country switches from domestic production ($130) to Korean imports ($110). This is trade creation – production moves from a high-cost domestic source to a lower-cost partner source.
情形A – 贸易创造：韩国商品现为110美元；中国商品为120美元；本国商品为130美元。该国从本国生产（130美元）转向韩国进口（110美元）。这是贸易创造——生产从高成本的本国来源转向成本更低的伙伴国来源。

Scenario A creates a welfare gain of $20 per unit, because the country sacrifices domestic production that cost $130 and instead imports at $110. No tariff revenue was being collected on domestic production, so the entire saving is a real resource gain.

情形A每单位产生20美元的福利收益，因为该国放弃了成本为130美元的本国生产，转而以110美元进口。本国生产不产生关税收入，因此全部节省都是实际资源的收益。

Scenario B – Trade Diversion: Suppose the country’s domestic production cost is $125 (instead of $130). Without the PTA, the country imports from China at $120 (including tariff). After the PTA, Korean goods cost $110, Chinese goods cost $120, and domestic goods cost $125. The country now imports from Korea at $110 instead of from China at $120. The price paid by consumers falls by $10, but the government loses $20 of tariff revenue per unit that it used to collect on Chinese imports. The net welfare loss is $10 per unit.
情形B – 贸易转移：假设该国国内生产成本为125美元（而非130美元）。在没有协定的情况下，该国以120美元（含关税）从中国进口。协定后，韩国商品为110美元，中国商品为120美元，本国商品为125美元。该国现在以110美元从韩国进口，而不是以120美元从中国进口。消费者支付的价格下降了10美元，但政府损失了原本对中国进口征收的每单位20美元关税收入。净福利损失为每单位10美元。

This numerical example illustrates a key insight: trade diversion can be welfare-reducing even when consumers pay a lower price. The loss of tariff revenue can outweigh the consumer benefit, because the government’s revenue is a transfer from consumers to the state that funds public services, whereas the higher real cost of imports represents a pure waste of global resources.

这个数字示例揭示了一个关键见解：即使消费者支付更低的价格，贸易转移也可能使福利恶化。关税收入的损失可能超过消费者收益，因为政府收入是消费者向国家的转移支付，用于资助公共服务，而更高的实际进口成本则代表全球资源的纯粹浪费。

5. Diagrammatic Analysis | 图形分析

Trade creation and diversion can be illustrated using supply and demand diagrams. For trade creation, consider a market with a domestic supply curve and a world supply curve plus tariff. When the tariff is removed on partner-country goods, the effective supply curve shifts downward, causing the equilibrium price to fall from P₁ to P₂. Domestic production falls from Q₁ to Q₂, while consumption rises from Q₃ to Q₄. The increase in imports from (Q₁Q₃) to (Q₂Q₄) represents trade creation.

贸易创造和贸易转移可以用供求曲线图来说明。对于贸易创造，考虑一个具有国内供给曲线和世界供给曲线加关税的市场。当对伙伴国商品的关税取消后，有效供给曲线下移，均衡价格从P₁降至P₂。国内生产从Q₁降至Q₂，而消费从Q₃升至Q₄。进口量从（Q₁Q₃）增至（Q₂Q₄）即贸易创造。

The welfare gain from trade creation consists of two triangles. The production gain (triangle a) arises because the country stops producing units that cost more than the import price. The consumption gain (triangle b) arises because consumers can buy additional units that they value above the new lower price. The sum of these two triangles is the net welfare gain to the importing country.

贸易创造的福利收益由两个三角形构成。生产收益（三角形a）源于该国停止了生产成本高于进口价格的单位。消费收益（三角形b）源于消费者能以新的更低价格购买到他们评价更高的额外单位。这两个三角形的面积之和就是进口国的净福利收益。

For trade diversion, the welfare picture differs. The government loses tariff revenue on the units that are now imported from the partner country. This loss is represented by a rectangle, not a triangle, because it applies to the entire quantity of diverted imports. The net loss equals the tariff revenue lost minus any consumer surplus gain from the slight price reduction, and in many realistic scenarios the tariff revenue loss dominates.

对于贸易转移，福利图景有所不同。政府失去了原本对现在从伙伴国进口的单位征收的关税收入。这一损失用矩形表示而非三角形，因为它适用于全部被转移的进口量。净损失等于损失的关税收入减去因价格小幅下降而获得的消费者剩余，在许多现实情形中关税收入损失占主导地位。

Net Welfare Effect = Consumer Surplus Gain − Producer Surplus Loss − Tariff Revenue Change

净福利效应 = 消费者剩余增加 − 生产者剩余损失 − 关税收入变动

6. Conditions Favoring Trade Creation | 有利于贸易创造的条件

Whether a regional integration agreement creates or diverts trade depends on several structural conditions. A well-designed PTA is more likely to create trade and less likely to divert it when the following conditions hold:

一个区域一体化协定是创造贸易还是转移贸易，取决于若干结构性条件。当以下条件成立时，精心设计的区域贸易协定更有可能创造贸易而较少转移贸易：

Member countries are natural trading partners: When member countries already trade heavily with each other before the agreement, the scope for trade creation is large, and the risk of diverting trade from efficient non-members is smaller.
成员国是天然的贸易伙伴：当成员国在协定前已有大量相互贸易时，贸易创造的空间较大，而从高效非成员国转移贸易的风险较小。
High pre-existing tariffs: The higher the initial tariff barriers among members, the greater the potential for trade creation when those barriers are removed. High tariffs also reduce the likelihood that the PTA merely substitutes one source of imports for another.
初始关税水平高：成员国之间的初始关税壁垒越高，取消这些壁垒时的贸易创造潜力就越大。高关税也降低了协定仅仅将进口来源从一个国家替换为另一个国家的可能性。
Non-members are relatively high-cost: If the rest of the world’s producers are not dramatically more efficient than member-country producers, the risk of trade diversion is lower. The welfare loss from switching to a less efficient partner is smaller when the cost gap is small.
非成员国成本相对较高：如果世界其他地区的生产者并不比成员国生产者效率高很多，贸易转移的风险就较低。当成本差距较小时，转向效率较低的伙伴所造成的福利损失也较小。
External tariffs do not rise: A customs union requires a common external tariff. If this tariff is set at or below the average of the member countries’ previous tariffs, the risk of additional trade diversion is contained.
对外关税不提高：关税同盟需要一个统一的对外关税。如果这个关税设定在成员国先前关税平均水平或以下，额外贸易转移的风险就能得到控制。

Geographic proximity also matters. Transport costs are lower between neighbouring countries, making them natural partners. The European Union’s successive enlargements, for example, have generally achieved net trade creation because the acceding countries were geographically close and already conducted substantial trade with existing members.

地理邻近性也很重要。邻国之间的运输成本较低，使它们成为天然的伙伴。例如，欧盟的历次扩大总体上实现了净贸易创造，因为加入国在地理上接近并与现有成员国已有大量贸易往来。

7. Welfare Effects and the Terms of Trade | 福利效应与贸易条件

The welfare analysis of regional integration extends beyond the simple trade creation–diversion dichotomy. A customs union can also improve the terms of trade for the bloc as a whole. When the union represents a large share of world demand for a product, its buying power increases, which may enable it to negotiate lower import prices from non-members. This terms-of-trade gain transfers income from non-member exporters to the union, representing a redistribution rather than a global efficiency gain.

区域一体化的福利分析超越了简单的贸易创造–转移二分法。关税同盟还可以改善整个集团的整体贸易条件。当关税同盟代表世界对某产品需求的大部分份额时，其购买力增强，这可能使其能够与非成员国谈判获得更低的进口价格。这种贸易条件收益将收入从非成员国出口商转移到同盟，代表的是一种再分配而非全球效率增益。

Additionally, the exclusion of non-members can impose significant costs on them. A large customs union can suffer from “trade suppression,” where non-member producers are priced out of the market entirely. This is particularly damaging for developing countries that are not part of the bloc. The welfare effects of regional integration are therefore not zero-sum within the union but can be negative for excluded parties.

此外，对非成员国的排斥可能给它们带来显著成本。大型关税同盟可能遭受”贸易压制”，即非成员国生产者被完全挤出市场。这对于不属于该集团的发展中国家尤其不利。因此，区域一体化的福利效应在同盟内部并非零和博弈，但对被排除的一方可能为负。

For the importing country, the net welfare effect of a PTA is the algebraic sum of the trade creation gain and the trade diversion loss. If the trade creation triangles exceed the trade diversion rectangle, the country gains; otherwise, it loses. Empirical studies of major agreements such as NAFTA and the EU’s Single Market generally find modest net gains, but these vary across countries and industries.

对进口国而言，区域贸易协定的净福利效应是贸易创造收益与贸易转移损失的代数和。如果贸易创造的三角形面积大于贸易转移的矩形面积，则国家受益；否则受损。对NAFTA（北美自由贸易协定）和欧盟单一市场等主要协定的实证研究普遍发现适度的净收益，但各国和各行业之间存在差异。

8. Dynamic Benefits and Static Limitations | 动态收益与静态局限

The static analysis of trade creation and diversion captures only one-time resource allocation effects. Regional integration also generates dynamic benefits that may outweigh the static losses. These include economies of scale, as firms in the integrated market can expand output to serve a larger consumer base. The enlarged market also intensifies competition, which can reduce monopoly power, improve efficiency, and spur innovation.

贸易创造与转移的静态分析仅捕捉了一次性的资源配置效应。区域一体化还产生可能超过静态损失的动态收益。这些收益包括规模经济，因为一体化市场中的企业可以扩大产量以服务更大的消费群体。扩大的市场还加剧了竞争，这可以减少垄断势力、提高效率并刺激创新。

Another dynamic benefit is the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI). Multinational corporations often prefer to locate within a large integrated market to avoid external tariffs and gain barrier-free access to all member states. This investment brings capital, technology, and managerial expertise, generating long-term growth spillovers. The EU’s single market has been particularly successful in attracting such investment from outside the bloc.

另一个动态收益是吸引外国直接投资（FDI）。跨国公司通常倾向于在大型一体化市场内选址，以避免外部关税并享受对所有成员国的无障碍准入。这种投资带来资本、技术和管理经验，产生长期增长外溢效应。欧盟单一市场在吸引此类外部投资方面尤为成功。

However, these dynamic gains are not automatic. They depend on the mobility of factors of production, the flexibility of labour and product markets, and the regulatory environment. Moreover, dynamic gains are inherently difficult to quantify, which is why the static trade creation–diversion framework remains the benchmark for policy evaluation.

然而，这些动态收益并非自动产生。它们取决于生产要素的流动性、劳动力市场和产品市场的灵活性以及监管环境。此外，动态收益本质上难以量化，这就是为什么静态的贸易创造–转移框架仍然是政策评估的基准。

9. Evaluation and Policy Implications | 评价与政策启示

Several evaluation points emerge from the trade creation–diversion analysis. First, the net welfare effect of a PTA is an empirical question, not a theoretical certainty. Some agreements, such as the EU’s original formation, generated substantial trade creation; others, particularly those that raised external tariff barriers, have caused trade diversion.

从贸易创造–转移分析中可以得出若干评价要点。首先，区域贸易协定的净福利效应是一个实证问题，而非理论上的定论。一些协定，如欧盟最初的成立，产生了大量贸易创造；另一些协定，尤其是那些提高了对外关税壁垒的协定，则造成了贸易转移。

Second, the global perspective must be distinguished from the regional perspective. A PTA may benefit its members while harming the rest of the world. The optimal policy from a global welfare perspective is non-discriminatory free trade, in which each country imports from the world’s lowest-cost producer. Regional integration is a second-best policy that can approximate free trade for its members but at the cost of discriminating against outsiders.

其次，必须区分全球视角与区域视角。一个区域贸易协定可能使成员国受益，同时损害世界其他地区。从全球福利角度看，最优政策是非歧视性的自由贸易，即每个国家都从世界最低成本生产者进口。区域一体化是一种次优政策，它可以为成员国近似自由贸易，但代价是对外部国家的歧视。

Third, the long-term dynamic benefits of integration may compensate for static trade diversion losses. The European Union has weathered periods of trade diversion but has enjoyed decades of market-driven innovation and growth that static analysis could not predict. Similarly, ASEAN’s evolution from a political grouping to a more integrated economic community has delivered significant structural transformation.

第三，一体化的长期动态收益可能弥补静态的贸易转移损失。欧盟经历了贸易转移的时期，但享有静态分析无法预测的持续几十年的市场驱动的创新与增长。同样，东盟从一个政治联盟演变为一个更加一体化的经济共同体，也带来了显著的结构性转型。

Finally, the analysis assumes that tariff revenue is a pure transfer and that its loss is a cost. In reality, governments may replace lost tariff revenue with more distortionary taxes, making the welfare loss of trade diversion larger than the simple arithmetic suggests. Conversely, if the partner country is disproportionately efficient and sustains rapid technological progress, the dynamic gains can dwarf static losses.

最后，分析假设关税收入是纯粹的转移支付，其损失是一项成本。在现实中，政府可能会用更具扭曲性的税收来替代损失的关税收入，使贸易转移的福利损失大于简单算术所显示的结果。相反，如果伙伴国效率格外高并持续取得快速技术进步，动态收益可能使静态损失相形见绌。

10. Conclusion | 结论

Trade creation and trade diversion provide the essential vocabulary for analysing regional integration. Trade creation improves allocative efficiency and raises welfare by shifting production to more efficient partners. Trade diversion reduces welfare by shifting imports from efficient non-members to less efficient members. Real-world agreements inevitably produce a combination of both effects, and the net outcome depends on initial conditions, tariff structures, and the competitive dynamics of member economies.

贸易创造与贸易转移为分析区域一体化提供了核心术语。贸易创造通过将生产转移到更高效的伙伴国，改善了配置效率并提高了福利。贸易转移则通过将进口从高效的非成员国转向效率较低的成员国而降低福利。现实中的协定不可避免地同时产生这两种效应，而净结果取决于初始条件、关税结构以及成员国经济的竞争动态。

Students of economics should remember that regional integration is not synonymous with free trade. It is a partial and preferential approach that yields genuine gains when it creates trade, but genuine losses when it diverts trade. The ultimate benchmark remains non-discriminatory multilateral liberalisation, under which every country imports from the most efficient global supplier and the static inefficiencies of trade diversion are avoided entirely.

经济学学生应当记住，区域一体化并不等同于自由贸易。它是一种部分且具有优惠性质的路径，当其创造贸易时产生真实的收益，而当其转移贸易时则造成真实的损失。最终的基准仍然是非歧视性的多边自由化，在这种制度下，每个国家都从全球最有效率的供应者进口，贸易转移的静态低效率被完全避免。

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Trade Creation and Trade Diversion: Analysis of Regional Integration | 贸易创造与贸易转移：区域一体化分析