Positive and Normative Statements in Economics | 经济学中的实证与规范陈述

📚 Positive and Normative Statements in Economics | 经济学中的实证与规范陈述

In A-Level Economics, students often meet the distinction between positive and normative statements early in the course. This distinction is essential because it separates factual, testable claims from opinions and value judgements. Understanding the difference helps you analyse economic arguments, evaluate policy proposals and write stronger examination answers.

在 A-Level 经济课程中，学生通常在课程初期就会接触到实证陈述与规范陈述的区别。这一区分非常重要，因为它将事实性、可检验的论断与观点和价值判断区分开来。理解这一区别有助于你分析经济论点、评估政策建议，并在考试中写出更有力的答案。

1. What are positive statements? | 什么是实证陈述

A positive statement is a claim about how the economy actually works. It can be tested against real-world evidence and either supported or refuted. Positive statements do not have to be true, but they must be capable of being tested. For example, “An increase in income tax reduces household disposable income” is a positive statement because data can be used to check whether it is correct.

实证陈述是关于经济实际如何运行的论断。它可以用现实世界的证据进行检验，并得到支持或反驳。实证陈述不一定是正确的，但必须是可以被检验的。例如，”提高所得税会减少家庭可支配收入” 就是一个实证陈述，因为可以用数据来检验它是否正确。

A positive statement often contains the words “is”, “will”, “would” or “does”. It describes cause-and-effect relationships that can be investigated by economists. For example, “A fall in the exchange rate will tend to increase export demand” is testable by observing trade data.

实证陈述通常包含 “是”、”将会”、”会” 或 “确实” 等词语。它描述经济学家可以研究的因果关系。例如，”汇率下降往往会增加出口需求” 就可以通过观察贸易数据来检验。

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2. What are normative statements? | 什么是规范陈述

A normative statement expresses a value judgement about what ought to happen. It cannot be settled by evidence alone because it depends on personal, ethical or political views. Normative statements often include words such as “should”, “ought”, “fair”, “better” or “too much”. For example, “The government should reduce income tax to help low-income families” is normative because it involves a judgement about what is desirable.

规范陈述表达的是关于应该发生什么的价值判断。它不能仅凭证据来解决，因为它取决于个人、伦理或政治观点。规范陈述通常包含 “应该”、”应当”、”公平”、”更好” 或 “太多” 等词语。例如，”政府应该降低所得税以帮助低收入家庭” 就是规范陈述，因为它涉及什么才是可取的价值判断。

Normative statements may be influenced by positive evidence, but they go beyond the facts. For instance, the positive statement “Higher minimum wages can reduce employment among young workers” might be accepted, but the normative view “Therefore the minimum wage should not be increased” still requires a value judgement about the trade-off between jobs and income.

规范陈述可能受到实证证据的影响，但它们超越了事实。例如，人们可能接受 “提高最低工资会减少青年就业” 这一实证陈述，但 “因此不应提高最低工资” 的规范观点仍然需要对就业与收入之间的权衡作出价值判断。

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3. Key differences between positive and normative statements | 实证与规范陈述的主要区别

The core difference is that positive statements are descriptive and testable, while normative statements are prescriptive and value-based. A positive statement can be shown to be true or false by using data, whereas a normative statement cannot be settled by facts alone.

核心区别在于实证陈述是描述性的和可检验的，而规范陈述是规定性的和基于价值的。实证陈述可以通过数据被证明是真或假，而规范陈述不能仅靠事实来解决。

Feature | 特征	Positive statement | 实证陈述	Normative statement | 规范陈述
Nature | 性质	Descriptive | 描述性	Prescriptive | 规定性
Testability | 可检验性	Can be tested with evidence | 可用证据检验	Cannot be settled by evidence alone | 不能仅凭证据解决
Typical words | 典型词语	is, will, does | 是、将会、确实	should, ought, fair | 应该、应当、公平

The table above summarises the main comparison. Cambridge exam questions often ask you to identify which type of statement is used in a passage or to explain why a statement is normative.

上表总结了主要对比。剑桥考试题目经常要求你识别段落中使用的是哪类陈述，或解释为什么某个陈述是规范性的。

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4. Examples of positive statements in economics | 经济学中的实证陈述例子

Positive statements appear in economic data analysis, modelling and forecasting. Here are several typical examples:

实证陈述出现在经济数据分析、建模和预测中。以下是几个典型例子：

• An increase in the Bank of England base rate will raise the cost of borrowing.
• 英国央行基准利率上升将提高借贷成本。
• A depreciation of the pound makes UK exports cheaper in foreign markets.
• 英镑贬值使英国出口商品在国外市场上更便宜。
• Higher inflation reduces the real value of money.
• 较高的通货膨胀会降低货币的实际价值。
• An increase in government spending on infrastructure can boost aggregate demand.
• 政府增加基础设施支出可以促进总需求。

Notice that each example is a cause-and-effect claim. They can be examined using economic data, although in practice accurate testing may be difficult because other variables also change.

请注意，每个例子都是因果关系的论断。它们可以用经济数据来检验，尽管在实践中由于其他变量也在变化，精确检验可能比较困难。

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5. Examples of normative statements in economics | 经济学中的规范陈述例子

Normative statements are common in policy discussions, political speeches and newspaper opinion pieces. They express what the writer believes should happen. Some examples include:

规范陈述常见于政策讨论、政治演说和报纸评论文章中。它们表达作者认为应该发生的事情。一些例子包括：

• The government should increase spending on public healthcare.
• 政府应该增加公共医疗支出。
• Income inequality is too high and must be reduced.
• 收入不平等过高，必须降低。
• The central bank ought to prioritise unemployment over inflation.
• 中央银行应该优先考虑失业问题而不是通货膨胀。
• Taxes on sugary drinks should be raised to improve public health.
• 应提高含糖饮料税以改善公共健康。

These statements cannot be proven right or wrong simply by looking at statistics. Different economists and citizens may hold different normative views even when they agree on the same positive evidence.

这些陈述不能仅通过统计数据来证明对错。即使不同的经济学家和公民认同相同的实证证据，他们也可能持有不同的规范观点。

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6. Why the distinction matters in economic analysis | 为什么区分两者在经济学分析中重要

Separating positive and normative statements is important because it clarifies what economics can and cannot do. Positive analysis aims to describe and predict, while normative analysis aims to recommend. Confusing the two can lead to flawed arguments and poor policy decisions.

区分实证与规范陈述很重要，因为它明确了经济学能做什么和不能做什么。实证分析旨在描述和预测，而规范分析旨在提出建议。混淆二者可能导致错误的论点和糟糕的政策决策。

For example, an economist might say, “A higher minimum wage reduces employment among low-skilled workers.” This is a positive claim. If they then say, “Therefore the minimum wage should not rise,” they have added a normative judgement. The second step needs ethical reasoning, not just data.

例如，一位经济学家可能会说，”更高的最低工资减少了低技能工人的就业。” 这是一个实证论断。如果他接着说，”因此最低工资不应提高”，他就加入了规范判断。第二步需要伦理推理，而不仅仅是数据。

In exams, you often earn marks by pointing out when a statement moves from positive to normative. Cambridge mark schemes reward candidates who recognise hidden value judgements in policy proposals.

在考试中，当你指出某个陈述从实证转向规范时，往往能得分。剑桥评分方案会奖励那些在政策建议中识别出隐藏价值判断的考生。

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7. The role of value judgements | 价值判断的作用

Value judgements are central to normative statements. A value judgement is a personal belief about what is desirable, fair or important. Economists cannot avoid value judgements entirely because economic policy always involves trade-offs between competing objectives.

价值判断是规范陈述的核心。价值判断是个人对什么是可取、公平或重要的信念。经济学家无法完全避免价值判断，因为经济政策总是涉及在相互竞争的目标之间进行权衡。

For instance, the trade-off between efficiency and equity requires a value judgement. A policy that makes the economy more efficient might also make income distribution less equal. Deciding whether the efficiency gain is worth the rise in inequality is not a purely scientific question.

例如，效率与公平之间的权衡需要价值判断。一项使经济更高效的政策可能同时使收入分配更不平等。判断效率提升是否值得以不平等加剧为代价，并不是一个纯粹的科学问题。

Cambridge examiners expect you to understand that positive economics provides the evidence base, but normative choices are made by society and politicians. This distinction is at the heart of many essay

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